A stock can beat Wall Street’s earnings estimates and still fall sharply. Another company can miss an estimate and rally. This is not necessarily irrational. Stock prices respond to how results compare with the expectations already reflected in the price, not simply whether the headline says “beat” or “miss.” Key takeaways for stock investors An…
Can automation harm workers without replacing them? We study jobs in which workers value both producing useful output and knowing that the output depends on their own contribution. A credible machine alternative can weaken that second source of meaning even when the firm retains the worker. Our model shows that this loss raises compensation when…
We thank Lori Beaman, Federico Bugni, Ivan Canay, Joel Horowitz, and participants at Northwestern University Development Lunch for insightful comments. We thank Ejin Kim, Caleb Kwon, and Harneet Singh for excellent research assistance. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic…
Outsourcing credit lets the Chinese EV maker scale fast while leaving asset risks to lenders. This article appears in the July/August issue of Global Finance Magazine. Walk the streets of cities like Valencia or Paris, and you don’t need the data to see BYD everywhere, especially in ride-hailing fleets and private transportation. These days, the…
Parents’ and teachers’ expectations and aspirations are critical drivers of educational outcomes, yet what causally shapes these expectations remains unclear. In the present study, we address this question by deploying the random experiment of meiosis: namely, conditional on parental genotype, offspring genotype is random, allowing for the unconfounding of unique child characteristics from the more…
Is US Secretary of State Marco Rubio an embattled champion of Venezuelan democracy within the Trump administration, or the public face of a strategy aimed at keeping the old regime in power? Six months after Nicolás Maduro’s ouster, his record suggests democratic restoration is no longer an American priority—if it ever was. CAMBRIDGE—On the classic…