Economists split three ways on the Bank of Canada’s next move
His base case has the output gap closing in late 2026 or early 2027, opening room to move toward 3 percent against a neutral range he puts at 2.25 percent to 3.25 percent.
Andrew DiCapua, principal economist at the Business Data Lab and the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, told Wealth Professional the hold is “the safest course of action right now,” adding that “the Bank is not fighting the same inflation battle as some other central banks.”
A firmer outlook has pulled hikes forward on the calendar, he said, but rates are unlikely to move higher this year.
NerdWallet Canada mortgage and finance expert Clay Jarvis puts the near-term risk in fixed rates rather than variable, which he expects to keep hovering around 3.4 percent.
“Bond yields aren’t much higher than they were a month ago, but it won’t take much of an upward swing before lenders start hiking their fixed rates in response,” Jarvis told Wealth Professional.
