Climate risk just got a number: what 5°C means for your clients
What comes after 2040, however, is not predetermined.
Two futures, an enormous gap
The report lays out two starkly different scenarios. Under a global net-zero pathway achieved by the 2070s, warming in Canada would stabilise at approximately 3.5°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100.
Under current global policy settings, which fall well short of that target, Canada faces average warming of 5°C, with temperatures still climbing at century’s end, the report states.
The difference between those scenarios would be felt in every corner of the country. In the 5°C future, glaciers across Western Canada would virtually disappear, winter temperatures across much of Nunavut and Nunavik would rise by more than 10°C, and the southern Prairies could face up to five times the frequency of severe droughts compared to today.
Ryan Ness, Adaptation Research Director at the Canadian Climate Institute, a national climate policy research organisation, stated in response to the report: “The gap between these two futures is enormous, and the difference will be measured in lives lost, homes destroyed, and communities and livelihoods damaged beyond recognition.”
