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Car sales will generally hold up this year. But affordability is a growing buyer concern. Here’s what to know if you’re in the market.
Dealerships will remain relatively busy, with about 16 million cars and light trucks sold this year, in line with 2025. Despite sticker shock, shoppers are still finding ways to afford a new vehicle. While car prices aren’t rising as swiftly now, with the average transaction price at $50,000 lately, financing and car insurance costs have surged. On average, insurance premiums have risen by 54% in the past five years. Even for buyers with good credit, auto loan rates are up by a percentage point. Folks with lower credit scores face significantly higher rates.
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Borrowers have been stretching out their car loans to achieve a bearable monthly payment, even though that means paying more in interest during the loan. A third of loans to finance new cars last six-plus years.
There may not be many deals to be had now. But there are ways to save, especially for folks who are flexible on the make, model or vehicle options.
- If you can live with the base model of the car you want, do it. The difference between the cheapest and priciest trims of a given vehicle can be hefty. For example, most buyers of Toyota’s ever-popular RAV4 opt for the upscale XSE and Limited trims instead of the base LE, and pay $9,400 to $11,400 more for the added amenities.
- Note which brands have more or fewer cars in stock. Toyota and Honda have the leanest inventories, which generally means less room to bargain. Stellantis, the parent company of Jeep, RAM, Dodge and Chrysler, has the most cars on dealer lots now.
- Hybrids continue to sell well, now making up 14% of total sales. Buyers who target nonhybrid versions of a given model may face less pressure to pay up. You may have better options in the used-car market, given the high level of leasing in recent years.
- Low-mileage vehicles coming off lease can be good deals, and offer good warranties if sold through manufacturers’ certified pre-owned programs. Depreciation tends to be higher on fancier trims of used cars…good for second owners.
Automakers continue to lean on pickup trucks and SUVs as buyers’ interest in sedans continues to wane. Tesla just axed its flagship Model S sedan. Cadillac will soon have just one sedan in its lineup. Ditto for Acura. Coupes are even rarer.
Also note the budding return of small pickups. With full-size trucks so big, and even midsize models inflating in size, many buyers pining for compact work trucks who have felt left out are starting to get more options. Ford’s compact Maverick pickup has been a strong seller. Start-up Slate Auto is now taking orders for its two-door truck, which is electric, smaller than a Corolla, and starts at $24,950. Ford is readying a rival to the Slate, also electric, and Toyota is rumored to be mulling a small hybrid pickup.
This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.