This research was supported by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute Of Child Health & Human Development of the National Institutes of Health under Award Number R01HD107079 and the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) under award number 2201888. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health, the National Science Foundation, or the National Bureau of Economic Research. We thank Joe Altonji for helpful comments on the first draft. We also thank Glenn Harrison, Patrick Kyllonen, Tamara McGavock, John Rust and Michael Woodford for comments on various drafts of the paper. Ariyan Mishra and Arjun Pathy provided helpful research assistance. Ariyan Mishra also made very helpful comments on various drafts.