I thank various workshop/seminar participants and colleagues for their comments. Insurance market intelligence was generously provided by former colleagues at Liberty Mutual Insurance and UnitedHealth. Special thanks to Jim MacPhee who is particularly unstinting with his time despite having to run a Fortune 100 insurance company. Funding was provided by the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research and Harvard Business School AI Institute. Valuable research assistance was provided by Daniel Kornbluth. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.