This manuscript is prepared for a chapter in the volume, New Frontiers in Fertility, edited by James J. Heckman. We would like to thank James Heckman and the participants of the “Family, Fertility and Human Development Initiative” for helpful discussions. Chang Liu acknowledges financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.72103193). All remaining errors are our own. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.