Trump’s contradictory views on Canadian oil exports to the U.S.

In recent weeks, President Donald Trump has said repeatedly that “Canada is ripping the US off for about $60 billion every year.” US$60 billion is roughly the size of the merchandise trade deficit between the two countries in 2025. He also said that “we have more oil and gas than they do.”

His reasoning is flawed for several reasons, most notably the largest contributor to the bilateral trade deficit was Canadian crude oil exports of roughly US$94 billion, according to Statistics Canada. In other words, absent these oil exports, the United States would be running a trade surplus of US$34 billion. If services trade was included the bilateral surplus (excluding oil) would be closer to US$40 billion.

Canada shipped on average 3.6 million barrels of crude oil per day to the U.S. in 2026. At the same time, U.S. refineries consumed about 16 million barrels per day, while the U.S. only produces 13.8 million barrels per day, and the U.S. exports about 0.4 million barrels per day to Canada and has net exports of crude oil to the rest of the world of about 1 million barrels per day.

This pattern of crude oil trade reflects the geography of production and consumption, and the different types of crude oil. The key point is that Canada supplies the heavy/sour crude oil, produced in the oilsands, to U.S. refineries primarily in the Midwest and Gulf Coast, which consume about six million barrels of this type of crude oil per day. The U.S. does not produce sufficient amounts of this crude oil—only roughly 1 million barrels per day, to satisfy this refinery demand.

Therefore, contrary to President’s Trump claim, the U.S. needs Canadian crude oil for two reasons: first, U.S. production is below consumption and will remain so for the foreseeable future, and second, and more importantly, U.S. refineries require the quality of oil Canada produces and exports. Canada supplies about 60 per cent of the U.S. demand for heavy/sour crude oil. These oil exports are hardly a “rip off” but a mutually beneficial and voluntary exchange between private firms on both sides of the border.

Despite his views that the U.S. was being ripped off by Canada and the U.S. had no need of Canadian oil, President Trump also recently stated that “The great Keystone XL Pipeline, long ago killed by Sleepy Joe Biden, may be awoken from the grave!” Unfortunately, the pipeline being referred to is not the original Keystone XL project, which would have run from Canada to Cushing, Oklahoma with a capacity of 0.83 million barrels per day, but a different project called the “Prairie Connector” that would reuse portions of the infrastructure constructed for Keystone XL in Canada and run to Guernsey, Wyoming with a capacity of 0.55 million barrels per day. This pipeline was approved by President Trump in an executive order in April 2026 and would promote Canadian exports of crude oil to the U.S. by lowering transport costs.

More recently, President Trump reposted on Trump’s Truth a Just the News headline that read “Trump’s historic oil deal with Venezuela realigns global energy and puts OPEC, Canada on notice.” This repost, however, implicitly recognizes the importance of Canadian crude oil to the U.S. economy. Venezuela’s crude oil is of the same heavy/sour quality as Canadian crude oil exports, and thus represents a potential substitute.

It’s important to note, however, that current production of crude oil by Venezuela is just over one million barrels per day and could not replace Canada’s heavy/sour crude oil exports to the U.S. OpenParliament.ca reported that in March 2026 University of Calgary energy expert Robert Johnston appeared before the House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee and said that perhaps 500,000 to 600,000 barrels/day of Venezuelan supply that had previously gone to China could eventually be sent to the U.S. market. He also said that a significant increase in Venezuelan production could reduce the price received by Canadian oil exporters on the U.S. Gulf Coast. Other experts have said that it could be 10 years before Venezuela’s production of crude oil could be restored to earlier peak production levels.

President Trump’s views on Canadian oil exports to the U.S. are inconsistent and contradictory. On the one hand, he claims they are a “rip-off” and not needed, but on the other he supports measures to increase them or replace them, implicitly recognizing their lasting importance to the U.S. economy.