Dow Falls 628 Points as Rate Pressures Rise: Stock Market Today
An escalating trade war in North America, on top of more shooting in the Middle East, made for another risk-off trading session on Wall Street, as investors, traders and speculators returned from a three-day weekend. After a mixed open, the main stock indexes extended their collective losing streak to two, with markets focused on incoming inflation data before next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
The economic calendar is abbreviated, but it already feels like a long wait until the release of the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report before the opening bell on Friday. And that’s only after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reveals August Producer Price Index (PPI) data on Thursday.
“With geopolitical tensions and oil prices on the rise, the markets may find it difficult to focus on much beyond the inflation discussion,” E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley Managing Director Chris Larkin observes.
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Indeed, the front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was up 2.4% to $93.65 per barrel on reports of fresh war-related damage to energy infrastructure around the Strait of Hormuz. The global benchmark, Brent Crude oil futures, traded as high as $99.45, approaching the psychologically significant $100 barrier.
The 2-year Treasury yield was up 1.7 basis points to 4.396% vs 4.379% on Friday, while the 10-year Treasury yield (+1.0 bps, 4.794%) and the 30-year Treasury yield (+0.5 bps, 5.251%) also ticked higher.
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Following a blowout August jobs report, odds of a rate hike next week remain near 60%. According to CME Group FedWatch, the federal funds rate futures market is pricing in a 60.4% probability the FOMC boosts its primary benchmark by 25 basis points, up from 59.4% on Friday and 44.4% a month ago.
“Unlike the stock market’s reaction to the jobs report, good economic news this week — that is, cooler inflation — should be treated as good,” Larkin concludes. “Anything that reduces concerns about possible Fed rate hikes will likely get a warm reception.”
Intel looks particularly chipper
Utility stocks were tops among the 11 sectors defined by S&P Global Market Intelligence, while energy stocks and real estate were in the green, too. Tech stocks in general were lower on Tuesday, but semiconductor stocks surged.
And Intel (INTC, +9.1%) was the main mover from a price-action perspective, even after Qualcomm (QCOM, +3.2%) said it inked a deal to supply Amazon (AMZN, -0.6%) with custom AI chips for the e-commerce and cloud computing giant’s data centers.
For its part, Intel announced a 10% price increase designed to support its profit margins. That move prompted Northland Securities analyst Gus Richard to upgrade INTC to Outperform (Buy) from Market Perform (Hold).
Richard cited “material progress” in the chipmaker’s turnaround program, as well as the pricing power revealed in its price hike amid a CPU shortage.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, +5.9%) and Marvell Technology (MRVL, +0.8%) also posted notable gains.
At the closing bell, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was down 0.3% at 26,421, the broad-based S&P 500 had slipped 0.6% to 7,673, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was lower by 1.2% at 52,786.
AMGN’s worst day since October 2000
Amgen (AMGN, -10.1%) suffered its steepest one-day sell-off in almost 26 years and was the worst-performing Dow Jones stock on Tuesday after Novartis (NVS, -13.9%) reported the failure of an experimental cardiovascular treatment, pelacarsen, to meet phase 3 trial expectations.
Investors, traders and speculators are selling AMGN because the negative result for Novartis’ pelacarsen suggests a similar outcome for Amgen’s heart disease drug, olpasiran.
At the same time, BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan Siegerman cited AMGN’s year-to-date outperformance vs the S&P 500 as a primary reason for downgrading the healthcare stock to Market Perform (Hold).
“Commercial execution is now the base case with shares up +34%,” Siegerman writes, noting gains of more than 13% for the broad index and the NYSE Arca Pharmaceutical Index.
Amgen “continues to face significant LOE [loss of exclusivity] headwinds with more work needed for us to get comfortable with the company’s longer-term trajectory.” Siegerman maintained his $450 12-month target price for AMGN, upside of more than 14% from its closing price on Tuesday.
According to Dow Jones Market Data, Amgen declined by 13.4% on October 27, 2000.
